I got tired of the endless choruses of "AI will create a ton of new jobs, don't worry!" So I opened the WEF 2025 report and dug into the numbers myself. Let's look at what we've actually been promised by 2030.

"Remapping tasks and skills" and "repackaging work." Heh. Yes, there will be a net gain of around 78 million jobs (92 million will disappear, 170 million will appear). Now let's look at exactly where those 78 million will show up.

where the jobs are coming from

Software developers are the only "technological" profession in the top tier with significant weight. Everything else is manual labor and the service sector.

AI is a minor player

The report lists 15+ macro-trends that affect jobs. AI isn't leading the pack:

A pathetic 1.8 million. "AI will create many new jobs." No.

the swiss army knife problem

The report isn't entirely clear on what will happen with data/product analysts — but it's already evident that even mid-level positions, not just junior ones, are disappearing. The job stack is becoming so broad that you're effectively a Swiss Army Knife. And consider: 7 million financial sector workers will be laid off (auditors, accountants, bank clerks). I'm sure they'll storm the field of data analytics.

It's amusing how employers claim they're ready to retrain their staff — and then, at 6 AM, send a mass layoff email to 30,000 employees with a polite "thanks for your service, now get lost."

the perfect carrot and stick

The era of the "average" worker is over. Business has found its salvation in AI. Managers never could find a way to force workers to take on more responsibility, more work, and more initiative without giving up equity or an ownership stake. An employee, unless they're a workaholic, understands they have one life — and would never work themselves to death just to keep their job.

Now, the perfect carrot-and-stick has been found: "Work harder and do more, just to keep your spot... for a while."